2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions

Turns a described situation into a linear rule: choosing which quantity is the input, reading the rate and the initial value out of the words, and — the step most often missed — stating the domain the situation allows rather than the one the formula would accept. Distinguishes interpolation from extrapolation and names model breakdown as the reason the distinction matters.

Subject: Precalculus · 65 slides · symbolic lesson

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What this lesson covers

The lesson, slide by slide

1. Lesson 2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions

Title

Precalculus · Chapter 2 — Linear Functions

§2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions, pp. 233-246

2. By the end of this lesson you can

Objectives

Five things, each one you can check yourself on paper.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 233-246 — the pages these objectives are drawn from

3. Before we start: what does the formula not know?

Warm-up

A model is a formula plus a claim about what it describes, and the formula carries none of the second part.

Discussion prompt

A tank holds 200 litres and drains at 3 litres per minute, modelled by 200 minus 3 times the minutes. What does that formula happily tell you that is nonsense?

Hint: Try putting in 100 minutes. Then try negative 10.

Answer:

At 100 minutes it returns negative 100 litres, which is not a volume. The tank emptied at about 66.7 minutes and stayed empty; the formula kept subtracting.

At negative 10 minutes it returns 230 litres, more than the tank holds. The formula does not know the tank has a capacity, or that time before the start has not happened.

So the formula is right on a limited stretch and meaningless outside it. Saying which stretch is part of the model, and the formula gives no hint that the question needs asking — which is exactly why it is the step that gets skipped.

4. A model is a formula plus a domain plus an interpretation

Concept

Building a linear model means finding the rate and the initial value, writing the rule, and then saying what the numbers mean and where the rule applies. The last two are not optional extras.

\[ f(x) = \underbrace{m}_{\text{rate}}\,x + \underbrace{b}_{\text{initial value}}, \qquad x \in \text{[what the situation allows]} \]

The algebra here is entirely §2.1's. What is new is that every symbol now has a name, a unit, and a range of validity, and questions ask about those as often as they ask for a number. A bare formula with no units and no domain is an incomplete answer to a modelling question.

Figure (svg): A five-stage flow from a written situation to an interpreted answer, showing the modelling cycle: identify the variables, find the rate, find the initial value, write the rule, and check the domain

The first four steps are the algebra of §2.1 in a new order. The fifth is what makes it a model rather than an equation, and it is the step with no algebraic prompt to remind you of it.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 233-236

5. Choosing the input and output

Section

Section 1

6. The choice is yours, and it changes the slope

Concept

Either of two related quantities can be taken as the input. The choice decides what the slope means and which questions the model answers directly.

It is worth noticing that both choices are legitimate models of the same situation. Neither is wrong; one is simply more convenient for the question at hand. If you build the inconvenient one, you can still answer, but you will be solving an equation where the other model would only have needed a substitution.

Figure (svg): A contrast showing the same pair of quantities modelled two ways, with the input and output swapped, giving two different slopes that are reciprocals of each other

Which quantity you call the input is a choice, and it changes the slope to its reciprocal. Both models are correct; only one answers the question that was asked.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 233-237

7. The same situation, modelled two ways

Picture it

One pair of quantities, two choices of input, two reciprocal slopes.

Figure (svg): A contrast showing the same pair of quantities modelled two ways, with the input and output swapped, giving two different slopes that are reciprocals of each other

Which quantity you call the input is a choice, and it changes the slope to its reciprocal. Both models are correct; only one answers the question that was asked.

Eighteen dollars per hour and one eighteenth of an hour per dollar describe the same job. The units tell you which model you have built, and they are the fastest check that you built the one you intended.

8. Worked example: identify the variables

Worked example

Read the question first, then decide which quantity is the input.

\[ \text{A car uses fuel at } 0.08 \text{ litres per km from a } 45 \text{ litre tank. How far can it go?} \]

Read what is being asked for

Why: A distance is wanted.

Decide the input

Why: Distance is wanted, so it should be the input we solve for later, or the output.

Identify the rate and its sign

Why: Fuel decreases as distance grows.

\[ m = -0.08\text{ litres per } \text{km} \]

Identify the starting value

Why: The tank before any driving.

\[ b = 45\text{ litres} \]

Figure (svg): The solution to Worked example identify the variables shown as a ladder of expressions, one row per legal move

The whole solution at once: each drop is one legal move.

\[ F(d)=45-0.08d \]

Verify: check the units of the slope

Why: The slope is litres per kilometre, which is output units over input units — consistent with distance as the input and fuel as the output. Had the model been built the other way, the slope would have been kilometres per litre, about 12.5, which is the fuel economy rather than the consumption rate.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 234-236

9. Positive or negative rate?

Sorting

The verb in the sentence carries the sign, not the number.

Sort into buckets

Sort each described rate.

Positive slope
the population grows by 400 a year; the account gains 15 a week
Negative slope
the balance falls by 25 a month; the temperature drops 2 degrees an hour
pos
Grows and gains both mean the output increases as the input increases, so the change in output is positive and so is the slope. The number quoted is its size.
neg
Falls and drops both mean the output decreases as the input increases. The number quoted is the size of the drop, and the model needs it with a minus sign attached, which the sentence never writes explicitly.

10. Worked example: answer with the model

Worked example

The question determines whether you evaluate or solve.

\[ \text{Using } F(d)=45-0.08d, \text{ how far can the car travel before the tank is empty?} \]

Translate the question

Why: Empty means the output is zero.

\[ s e t F(d) = 0 \]

Write the equation

Why: The rule equals zero.

\[ 45 - 0.08 d = 0 \]

Solve for the input

Why: Divide 45 by 0.08.

\[ d = 562.5 \]

Attach the units

Why: The input was in kilometres.

\[ 562.5 \text{km} \]

Figure (svg): The solution to Worked example answer with the model shown as a ladder of expressions, one row per legal move

The whole solution at once: each drop is one legal move.

\[ d = 562.5 \text{ km} \]

Verify: sanity-check the size

Why: At 0.08 litres per kilometre, 45 litres should last roughly 45 divided by 0.08, which is a bit over 500 kilometres — the right order of magnitude for a full tank. Note this was a SOLVE rather than an evaluation, because the question gave the output; building the model the other way round would have made it a substitution instead.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 236-237

11. Trap: taking the rate's sign from the number given

Trap

The trap

\[ \text{drains at } 3 \text{ litres per minute} \;\Longrightarrow\; V(t)=200+3t \]

Read the rate as 3 and put it in the model

Why: The number 3 appears in the problem without a minus sign, so it is used as written.

The model predicts the tank filling rather than emptying.

The fix

Draining means the output decreases, so the rate is negative 3 litres per minute regardless of how the number was written in the sentence.

The words carry the sign: drains, falls, loses and decreases are all negative; fills, rises, gains and grows are positive. The digit in the sentence never carries it.

Check the model's direction against the story. After one minute this model gives 203 litres, more than the tank started with, which is visibly wrong. One substitution catches every sign error of this kind.

12. Predict the effect of swapping

Prediction

A model has slope 20 dollars per hour, and the input and output are swapped.

Predict first

What is the new slope?

  • One twentieth of an hour per dollar
  • Negative 20 dollars per hour
  • 20 hours per dollar
  • Unchanged at 20

Correct: One twentieth of an hour per dollar.

Why: Swapping the roles inverts the fraction that the rate is, so the number becomes its reciprocal and the units turn upside down. This is the inverse function from §1.7, arriving in an applied setting: the two models undo each other, and the reciprocal slope is exactly what the reflection in the line y equals x produces.

13. Match the phrase to the constant it gives

Matching

A modelling sentence usually contains both constants, in different grammatical shapes.

Match the pairs

  • l1. a 30 joining fee
  • l2. 12 per month thereafter
  • l3. starts at 500 litres
  • l4. loses 4 litres per hour
  • r1. the initial value, 30
  • r2. the slope, 12 per month
  • r3. the initial value, 500
  • r4. the slope, negative 4 per hour

Why: Phrases containing the word 'per' are almost always rates and give the slope. Phrases naming a one-off amount or a starting condition give the initial value. The last pair shows the sign coming from the verb rather than the number, which is the distinction the trap slide is about.

14. What is the first move?

Step zero

You are given a paragraph describing a situation and asked to model it.

Discussion prompt

Before writing any algebra, what two questions do you answer, and why in that order?

Hint: What decides which quantity goes on which axis?

Answer:

First: what is being asked for? That quantity is normally the output, because then answering is an evaluation rather than solving an equation.

Second: what quantity is it being asked for in terms of? That is the input. Time is the input whenever it appears, since nothing predicts time from something else.

Answering these before any algebra prevents the most expensive error in the section, which is building a correct model of the wrong relationship. Once the two variables are named, with their units, the rate and the initial value can be read out of the words almost mechanically.

15. Building the model from data

Section

Section 2

16. Two data points, or a rate and a value

Concept

A linear model is determined by either a rate together with one value, or by two values. Both routes lead to the same rule through §2.1's forms.

The last bullet does more work than it looks. In a problem about years, deciding whether input zero means the year 2000 or the year 2020 changes the intercept completely, and two students with the same correct model can appear to disagree. Stating the convention removes the ambiguity.

Figure (svg): A five-stage flow from a written situation to an interpreted answer, showing the modelling cycle: identify the variables, find the rate, find the initial value, write the rule, and check the domain

The first four steps are the algebra of §2.1 in a new order. The fifth is what makes it a model rather than an equation, and it is the step with no algebraic prompt to remind you of it.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 237-242

17. The five steps

Picture it

Four of them are algebra you already have; the fifth is what makes it a model.

Figure (svg): A five-stage flow from a written situation to an interpreted answer, showing the modelling cycle: identify the variables, find the rate, find the initial value, write the rule, and check the domain

The first four steps are the algebra of §2.1 in a new order. The fifth is what makes it a model rather than an equation, and it is the step with no algebraic prompt to remind you of it.

The order matters only in that the variables must be named first. Everything after that is §2.1 with units attached.

18. Worked example: from two data points

Worked example

Slope first, then point-slope, then interpret.

\[ \text{A town had } 20\,000 \text{ people in } 2010 \text{ and } 26\,000 \text{ in } 2016. \text{ Model it.} \]

Define the input

Why: Years since 2010, so the first data point is at zero.

\[ t =\text{ years since } 2010 \]

Compute the slope

Why: Change in people over change in years.

\[ \frac{6000}{6} = 1000\text{ per year} \]

Read the initial value

Why: The population at t equal to zero.

\[ b = 20000 \]

Write the rule

Why: Slope-intercept, since we have the value at zero.

\[ P(t) = 20000 + 1000 t \]

Figure (svg): The solution to Worked example from two data points shown as a ladder of expressions, one row per legal move

The whole solution at once: each drop is one legal move.

\[ P(t)=20\,000+1000t \]

Verify: check the second data point

Why: At t equal to 6 the model gives 20000 plus 6000, which is 26000 — matching the second data point exactly. Choosing 2010 as the origin made the intercept one of the given values, which is why defining the input that way was worth doing before computing anything.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 238-240

19. Finish the model

Faded example

A gym charges 60 to join and 35 a month. Model the total cost after m months.

Fill in the blanks

C(m) = 35m + 60

Why: The monthly charge is the rate and so multiplies the input; the joining fee is paid once and is the value at zero months. Checking: at m equal to 0 the cost is 60, the joining fee alone, and each further month adds 35. Swapping the two constants is the standard error and gives a model that is wrong from the first month onward.

20. Worked example: when neither point is at zero

Worked example

Point-slope handles it without finding the intercept first.

\[ \text{A plant is } 12 \text{ cm tall after } 3 \text{ weeks and } 26 \text{ cm after } 10 \text{ weeks.} \]

Compute the slope

Why: Change in height over change in weeks.

\[ \frac{14}{7} = 2 \text{cm}\text{ per week} \]

Use point-slope with either point

Why: The first is as good as the second.

\[ h - 12 = 2(w - 3) \]

Expand

Why: Distribute and collect.

\[ h = 2 w + 6 \]

Interpret the intercept

Why: The height at week zero.

\[ 6 \text{cm}\text{ when planted} \]

Figure (svg): The solution to Worked example when neither point is at zero shown as a ladder of expressions, one row per legal move

The whole solution at once: each drop is one legal move.

\[ h(w)=2w+6 \]

Verify: check both data points and the interpretation

Why: At 3 weeks: 6 plus 6 is 12. At 10 weeks: 20 plus 6 is 26. Both match. The intercept 6 is a genuine prediction rather than a given value — the model claims the plant was 6 cm at planting, which is a testable statement and might be wrong if growth was not linear from the start.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 240-242

21. Find the error: leaving the input undefined

Error analysis

A student models a population and reports the rule.

Annotate

On: \( P(t)=20\,000+1000t \)

  • The algebra is entirely correct and both data points fit.
  • But nothing says what t measures, so the rule cannot be used.
  • If t is the calendar year, the model predicts millions of people in the year 2010.
  • If t is years since 2010, it is right, but the reader has no way to know.
  • The complete answer names the variable: t is years since 2010, P is people.

Define every variable with its unit and its origin. It costs one sentence and it is the difference between a formula and a model.

22. Predict the intercept's meaning

Prediction

A model gives a plant's height in centimetres after w weeks, and its intercept is 6.

Predict first

What does the 6 claim?

  • The plant was 6 cm tall at week zero
  • The plant grows 6 cm per week
  • The plant reaches 6 cm eventually
  • The plant was planted 6 weeks ago

Correct: The plant was 6 cm tall at week zero.

Why: The intercept is the output when the input is zero, so it is the height at the start. Growth per week is the slope, which is a different constant. Note that this is a prediction rather than an observation if week zero was not one of the measured times, and it may be a poor one if the plant did not grow linearly from planting.

23. Which route builds the model?

Sorting

The information you are given decides the form.

Sort into buckets

Sort each set of given information.

Slope-intercept directly
a rate and the value at input zero; the value at input zero and one other data point
Point-slope, or find the slope first
two data points, neither at input zero; a rate and one data point not at zero
si
Both of these hand you the intercept, so the value at zero can be written straight into the form. In the second case the slope has to be computed from the two points first, but the intercept is already known.
ps
Neither of these gives the value at zero, so slope-intercept form cannot be filled in directly. Point-slope takes any point at all, which is exactly what these situations supply, and the intercept falls out when the expression is expanded.

24. Explain the choice of origin

Explain it to yourself

Modelling years, one student uses the calendar year and another uses years since 2010.

Discussion prompt

Do they get the same model? Explain what differs and what does not.

Hint: What happens to the slope, and what happens to the intercept?

Answer:

The slope is identical: the population grows at the same rate however you label the years, since the rate is a ratio of changes and shifting the origin changes neither change.

The intercepts differ enormously. Using years since 2010 gives an intercept of 20000, the population then. Using the calendar year gives the population the model would predict for the year zero, which is a large negative number and means nothing.

So the two models are the same line described on differently labelled axes, and both are correct provided each states its convention. The years-since version is preferred because its intercept is a meaningful quantity rather than a nonsensical extrapolation two thousand years back.

25. The domain a situation allows

Section

Section 3

26. Where the model stops describing anything

Concept

A linear formula accepts every real number. The situation it models usually does not, and the model's domain is the set of inputs for which its predictions mean something.

The discrete case is worth separate attention. A model of the cost of buying n items is only meaningful at whole numbers, so its graph is a set of dots rather than a line — even though drawing the line through them is standard practice and harmless as long as everyone knows the points between are not claims.

Figure (svg): A line drawn across a wide window with only part of it solid, the rest dashed, showing that a model's mathematical graph extends beyond the interval the situation permits

The formula is defined on the whole line; the model is not. Stating where the model stops being about anything is part of building it.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 242-245

27. Solid where it means something

Picture it

The dashed continuation is the formula; the solid stretch is the model.

Figure (svg): A line drawn across a wide window with only part of it solid, the rest dashed, showing that a model's mathematical graph extends beyond the interval the situation permits

The formula is defined on the whole line; the model is not. Stating where the model stops being about anything is part of building it.

The two ends are bounded for different reasons: the left because time before the start has not happened, the right because the tank is empty and the physical process stops.

28. Worked example: find both ends of the domain

Worked example

One end from the start of the situation, the other from where it breaks down.

\[ \text{For } V(t)=200-3t \text{ litres after } t \text{ minutes, state the domain.} \]

Consider the lower end

Why: Time before the process started has not happened.

\[ t \ge 0 \]

Consider the upper end

Why: Volume cannot be negative.

\[ 200 - 3 t \ge 0 \]

Solve that condition

Why: Divide 200 by 3.

\[ t \le 66.67 \]

Combine

Why: Both conditions at once.

\[ 0 \le t \le 66.67 \]

Figure (svg): A line drawn across a wide window with only part of it solid, the rest dashed, showing that a model's mathematical graph extends beyond the interval the situation permits

The formula is defined on the whole line; the model is not. Stating where the model stops being about anything is part of building it.

\[ 0 \le t \le \tfrac{200}{3} \approx 66.7 \text{ minutes} \]

Verify: check what happens at the endpoints

Why: At t equal to zero the model gives 200 litres, the full tank. At about 66.7 minutes it gives zero, the empty tank. Beyond that the formula gives negative volumes, which is where the model stops describing the tank — the water does not go negative, it simply stops.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 243-244

29. What bounds this domain?

Discrimination

Each restriction comes from the situation, not the algebra.

Sort into buckets

Sort each restriction by which end it bounds.

Bounds the domain below
time before the experiment began; the moment the process starts
Bounds it above
the point at which the tank is empty; the capacity of the container
low
These concern inputs before the situation started, which have not happened. The usual convention is to set the input to zero at the start, which makes the lower bound zero.
high
These are the points at which the process stops or the quantity would become impossible. Both are found by setting the output to its extreme value and solving for the input, which is the only algebra the domain question needs.

30. Worked example: a discrete domain

Worked example

Some situations only permit whole-number inputs.

\[ \text{Tickets cost } 12 \text{ each with a } 4 \text{ booking fee. State the model and its domain.} \]

Write the rule

Why: Rate times tickets, plus the one-off fee.

\[ C(n) = 12 n + 4 \]

Ask what inputs are possible

Why: You cannot buy part of a ticket.

Consider the lower end

Why: Buying no tickets is possible, or not, by convention.

\[ n \ge 1\text{ typically} \]

State the domain

Why: Positive whole numbers.

\[ n = 1, 2, 3,... \]

Figure (svg): The solution to Worked example a discrete domain shown as a ladder of expressions, one row per legal move

The whole solution at once: each drop is one legal move.

\[ C(n)=12n+4, \quad n \in \{1,2,3,\dots\} \]

Verify: check what the line between the dots would claim

Why: At n equal to 2.5 the formula gives 34, which would be the cost of two and a half tickets — not a thing. The graph is genuinely a row of dots, and drawing a line through them is a convenience for seeing the trend rather than a claim about the points in between.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 244-245

31. Trap: giving the formula's domain instead of the model's

Trap

The trap

\[ V(t)=200-3t \;\Longrightarrow\; \text{domain: all real numbers} \]

Apply the domain rules from Section 1.2

Why: There is no denominator and no even root, so the formula accepts every real number.

The domain is reported as the whole real line.

The fix

That is the formula's domain, not the model's. The model describes a tank, and the tank imposes limits the formula knows nothing about.

Negative t is time before the draining started, and t beyond about 66.7 gives negative volumes. Neither is a statement about a tank.

For a model, ask the situation rather than the formula. §1.2's rules find where the algebra breaks; here nothing algebraic breaks at all, and the limits come entirely from the story.

32. Predict the upper bound

Prediction

A model gives a balance of 800 minus 45 times the number of weeks.

Predict first

Where does the model stop describing the account?

  • At about 17.8 weeks, when the balance reaches zero
  • At 45 weeks
  • At 800 weeks
  • It never stops; balances can be negative

Correct: At about 17.8 weeks, when the balance reaches zero.

Why: Setting the output to zero and solving gives 800 divided by 45, which is about 17.8. Beyond that the formula predicts a negative balance. Whether that is meaningful depends on the account: an overdraft would make it real, which is a good illustration that the domain comes from the situation and not from the mathematics.

33. Find where the model breaks

Faded example

A candle is 25 cm tall and burns 4 cm per hour. Find the upper end of the domain.

Fill in the blanks

25 - 4t \ge 0 \;\Longrightarrow\; t \le 6.25 \text___, \text___ 0 \le t \le ___

Why: Setting the height at or above zero and solving gives 25 over 4, which is 6.25 hours. After that the candle is gone; the formula would report negative heights, which describe nothing. The lower end is zero because the candle was not burning before it was lit.

34. Push the boundary

Edge cases

A model's domain is bounded above at the point where the output reaches zero.

Discussion prompt

Is the endpoint itself included, and does it matter?

Hint: Does the situation happen at that exact instant?

Answer:

Usually yes, it is included: the tank really is empty at that instant, and the model's prediction of zero litres is correct there. So the interval is closed at that end.

It matters when the situation changes character at the endpoint rather than merely stopping. A candle that has burnt out has height zero at that instant, which is a real state; a projectile hitting the ground is a different case, since the model of free flight stops applying at impact rather than continuing to predict correctly.

The habit worth building is to say why each endpoint is where it is, in the situation's words. That usually settles the bracket without a rule, and it produces the sentence a modelling question is actually asking for.

35. Interpolation, extrapolation, and model breakdown

Section

Section 4

36. How far from the evidence are you standing?

Concept

Predicting inside the range of the data is interpolation and is comparatively safe. Predicting outside it is extrapolation, and the further out you go the more you are assuming.

model breakdown — The point beyond which a model's predictions stop being reliable, usually because the assumption of a constant rate of change no longer holds in the situation being described.

The distinction is not about the arithmetic, which is identical in both cases. It is about how much of the answer rests on evidence and how much on an assumption. That is why questions ask whether a prediction is reasonable as well as what it is, and the two answers are genuinely separate.

Figure (svg): A line fitted through a cluster of data points, extended far beyond them, with the far region shaded in warning colours and labelled as extrapolation

A model is trustworthy near the evidence that produced it. Far outside that range it is an assumption, and the further out you go the stronger the assumption becomes.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 245-246

37. Inside the data and far outside it

Picture it

The same line, the same arithmetic, two very different levels of confidence.

Figure (svg): A line fitted through a cluster of data points, extended far beyond them, with the far region shaded in warning colours and labelled as extrapolation

A model is trustworthy near the evidence that produced it. Far outside that range it is an assumption, and the further out you go the stronger the assumption becomes.

Nothing about the line changes at the edge of the data. What changes is how much evidence supports the prediction, and the graph gives no warning at all.

38. Worked example: classify two predictions

Worked example

Same model, same arithmetic, different standing.

\[ \text{Data covers } 2010\text{--}2016 \text{ with } P(t)=20\,000+1000t. \text{ Predict } 2014 \text{ and } 2080. \]

Compute the first

Why: Four years after 2010.

\[ P(4) = 24000 \]

Classify it

Why: 2014 lies inside the data range.

Compute the second

Why: Seventy years after 2010.

\[ P(70) = 90000 \]

Classify it

Why: Far beyond the data.

Figure (svg): A line fitted through a cluster of data points, extended far beyond them, with the far region shaded in warning colours and labelled as extrapolation

A model is trustworthy near the evidence that produced it. Far outside that range it is an assumption, and the further out you go the stronger the assumption becomes.

\[ P(4)=24\,000 \text{ (interpolation)}; \; P(70)=90\,000 \text{ (extrapolation)} \]

Verify: say what the second one assumes

Why: It assumes the town grows by exactly 1000 people every year for seventy years, through every change in economy, housing policy and infrastructure. That is a very strong claim, supported by six years of data. The arithmetic is right and the prediction is not trustworthy, and those are separate judgements.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 245-246

39. Interpolation or extrapolation?

Sorting

The data covers the inputs from 2 to 10.

Sort into buckets

Sort each prediction.

Interpolation
predicting at input 5; predicting at input 9.5
Extrapolation
predicting at input 40; predicting at input -3
in
Both of these lie inside the range the data covers, so the model is being used between points it was fitted to. The pattern is evidenced on both sides, which is what makes interpolation comparatively safe.
ex
Both lie outside the data range, one far above and one below it. Extrapolation is not only about going forwards — predicting backwards past the first data point is exactly as much an assumption, and often more, since the situation may not even have existed then.

40. Worked example: find where a model must break

Worked example

Sometimes the breakdown point can be identified from the situation alone.

\[ \text{A child grows } 6 \text{ cm a year, modelled from ages } 4 \text{ to } 8. \text{ When must the model fail?} \]

State the model's assumption

Why: The same 6 cm every year, forever.

Test it far out

Why: At age 40, that is 216 cm added to the age-4 height.

Identify the real cause

Why: Human growth stops in the late teens.

State the breakdown

Why: The model fails from around the late teens onward.

Figure (svg): The solution to Worked example find where a model must break shown as a ladder of expressions, one row per legal move

The whole solution at once: each drop is one legal move.

\[ \text{Breakdown once growth ceases, in the late teens.} \]

Verify: note that the data could not have revealed this

Why: Nothing in the ages 4 to 8 data hints that growth will ever stop — those years really are close to linear. The breakdown was identified from knowledge of the situation, not from the numbers. That is generally true, and it is why a model needs someone who understands what it describes.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 246-246

41. Find the error: trusting a far extrapolation

Error analysis

A student uses a model built from six years of data.

Annotate

On: \( P(t)=20\,000+1000t \;\Longrightarrow\; P(500)=520\,000 \text{ people in } 2510 \)

  • The arithmetic is entirely correct: 500 times 1000 plus 20000 is 520000.
  • But the prediction reaches five hundred years beyond the six years of data.
  • It assumes a constant growth rate across five centuries.
  • Nothing in the data supports that, and no town has ever behaved that way.
  • The right answer states the number AND says it is not trustworthy.

A correct calculation and a reasonable prediction are two different things. Modelling questions usually want both judgements, and giving only the number answers half of what was asked.

42. Predict which assumption fails first

Prediction

A linear model describes a population growing steadily.

Predict first

What is the model assuming about the distant future?

  • That the growth rate stays exactly constant forever
  • That the population stays positive
  • That the data was measured accurately
  • That the relationship is a function

Correct: That the growth rate stays exactly constant forever.

Why: Linearity is precisely the claim that the rate of change never varies, so extending the model into the future extends that claim. Real populations saturate, decline, or change rate for a hundred reasons, which is why growth is more often modelled with the exponential and logistic functions of Chapter 4.

43. Rule out the true statements

Two truths and a lie

Two of these are true of extrapolation and one is false.

Eliminate the wrong options

One of these claims is wrong.

  • A. Extrapolation uses exactly the same arithmetic as interpolation
  • B. A far extrapolation is wrong arithmetic
  • C. Predicting backwards before the first data point is also extrapolation

Survives elimination: B

Why: B is the false claim. The arithmetic in a far extrapolation is perfectly correct — that is exactly what makes it dangerous. What fails is the assumption that the linear relationship still holds out there, which is a judgement about the situation rather than about the calculation.

44. Where model breakdown costs money

Real world

Linear extrapolation is the default forecast in a great many places.

Discussion prompt

A company projects next year's sales by extending this year's growth linearly. What should they check, and what would a more honest forecast include?

Hint: How far beyond the data is one year, and what could change?

Answer:

They should check how far the projection reaches beyond the data and whether anything in the situation is likely to change the rate — market size, competitors, capacity, the economy.

A more honest forecast gives a range rather than a number, and states the assumption explicitly: this figure assumes growth continues at the current rate. That converts a hidden assumption into a stated one, which is the main thing the distinction in this section buys.

One year ahead is usually a modest extrapolation and often reasonable. Five years is not, and the same arithmetic produces both — which is why the judgement has to be made separately from the calculation, every time.

45. Interpreting and comparing models

Section

Section 5

46. Saying what the numbers mean, in the situation's words

Concept

A modelling answer is not finished when the formula is written. The slope and intercept have interpretations, and comparing two models usually means comparing those.

The crossing point is where §2.2's intersection work pays off. Two options, one cheaper to start and one cheaper per unit, cross exactly once, and that input is the answer to 'when is it worth switching'. It is the most common applied question in the whole chapter.

Figure (svg): A contrast showing the same pair of quantities modelled two ways, with the input and output swapped, giving two different slopes that are reciprocals of each other

Which quantity you call the input is a choice, and it changes the slope to its reciprocal. Both models are correct; only one answers the question that was asked.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 236-242

47. Interpretation is part of the answer

Picture it

The same number means different things depending on which model it came from.

Figure (svg): A contrast showing the same pair of quantities modelled two ways, with the input and output swapped, giving two different slopes that are reciprocals of each other

Which quantity you call the input is a choice, and it changes the slope to its reciprocal. Both models are correct; only one answers the question that was asked.

Eighteen dollars per hour and one eighteenth of an hour per dollar are the same fact. Which one a question wants is decided by what it asked for.

48. Worked example: compare two plans

Worked example

Two models, and the crossing point decides between them.

\[ \text{Plan A: } 30 + 2n. \text{ Plan B: } 10 + 4n. \text{ Which is cheaper?} \]

Compare the starting values

Why: B starts cheaper.

\[ B\text{ cheaper at } n = 0 \]

Compare the rates

Why: A grows more slowly.

Find where they cross

Why: Set the two equal.

\[ 30 + 2 n = 10 + 4 n \]

Solve

Why: Collect and divide.

\[ n = 10 \]

Figure (svg): The solution to Worked example compare two plans shown as a ladder of expressions, one row per legal move

The whole solution at once: each drop is one legal move.

\[ \text{Equal at } n=10; \; B \text{ cheaper below}, \; A \text{ above.} \]

Verify: test one input on each side

Why: At n equal to 5: A costs 40 and B costs 30, so B wins as claimed. At n equal to 20: A costs 70 and B costs 90, so A wins. The crossing point genuinely divides the two regions, and testing one point each side is the check that the inequality was read in the right direction.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 241-242

49. The two constants, side by side

Comparison

Every linear model has both, and questions ask about them separately.

Comparison matrix

the slopethe intercept
what it isthe rate of changethe value at input zero
typical nameper-unit cost, speed, growth ratefixed cost, starting amount
unitsoutput units per input unitoutput units
always meaningful?yesonly if input zero makes sense

The last row is worth remembering. An intercept found by extrapolating far back — a population in the year zero, say — is a number the formula produces and not a fact about anything.

50. Worked example: interpret both constants

Worked example

Questions ask for the meaning as often as for the number.

\[ \text{For } C(n)=30+2n \text{ dollars for } n \text{ items, interpret } 30 \text{ and } 2. \]

Interpret the constant term

Why: It is the cost at zero items.

\[ 30\text{ is } a\text{ fixed } \cos t \]

Give it a name from the situation

Why: Paid regardless of how many items.

Interpret the coefficient

Why: The extra cost per additional item.

\[ 2\text{ dollars per item} \]

State its units

Why: Output units per input unit.

Figure (svg): The solution to Worked example interpret both constants shown as a ladder of expressions, one row per legal move

The whole solution at once: each drop is one legal move.

\[ \text{fixed cost } 30 \text{ dollars}; \text{ marginal cost } 2 \text{ dollars per item} \]

Verify: check each interpretation against the formula

Why: Setting n to zero gives 30, confirming the fixed cost. Going from 5 items to 6 raises the cost from 40 to 42, a rise of 2, confirming the per-item figure. Each interpretation is tested by the calculation it claims to describe, which is what distinguishes an interpretation from a guess.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 236-238

51. Trap: comparing models by their starting values alone

Trap

The trap

\[ A: 30+2n, \quad B: 10+4n \;\Longrightarrow\; B \text{ is cheaper} \]

Compare the two fixed costs

Why: Ten is less than thirty, so B is declared the cheaper plan.

Plan B is recommended without reference to how many items are involved.

The fix

Which is cheaper depends on n. B starts cheaper but rises twice as fast, so A overtakes it at 10 items and is cheaper for every larger order.

A complete answer names the crossing point and says which plan wins on each side of it. That is the question the situation is actually asking.

Compare the rates as well as the starting values, and find where they cross. A recommendation with no quantity attached is answering a question nobody asked.

52. Predict which plan wins

Prediction

Plan A has a high fixed cost and a low rate; plan B the reverse.

Predict first

Which is cheaper for a very large order?

  • A, because its rate is lower
  • B, because its fixed cost is lower
  • They cost the same
  • It cannot be determined

Correct: A, because its rate is lower.

Why: For large inputs the rate dominates: the fixed cost is a one-off and the per-unit cost is paid every time. So the plan with the smaller slope eventually wins, however large its fixed cost. The fixed cost decides only the small orders, and the crossing point is where the advantage changes hands.

53. Find the crossing point

Faded example

Plan A costs 50 plus 3 per unit; plan B costs 20 plus 6 per unit.

Fill in the blanks

50 + 3n = 20 + 6n \;\Longrightarrow\; 30 = 3n \;\Longrightarrow\; n = 10

Why: Subtracting 20 and 3n from both sides gives 30 equal to 3n, so n is 10. Below 10 units B is cheaper because of its lower fixed cost; above 10 A wins because of its lower rate. Testing one value each side confirms the direction.

54. Explain the trade-off

Explain it

Two plans, one cheap to start and one cheap per unit, is an extremely common situation.

Discussion prompt

Explain to someone choosing between two phone plans how to decide, in terms of slope and intercept.

Hint: What do they need to know about themselves before the mathematics can help?

Answer:

They need to estimate their own usage, because the answer depends entirely on it. Without that number the mathematics cannot recommend anything, and any recommendation made without it is guessing.

Then: the plan with the lower intercept wins for light usage, and the plan with the lower slope wins for heavy usage. The crossing point is the usage at which they cost the same, and it is the number worth computing.

The useful advice is therefore not 'plan A' but 'plan A if you use more than X, plan B otherwise', with X computed. That is a complete answer to a comparison question, and it is what the crossing point is for.

55. The formula's domain against the model's

Comparison

Fill the blanks from memory. This is the distinction the section exists to make.

Comparison matrix

the formula's domainthe model's domain
found by askingwhat breaks the algebrawhat the situation allows
for a linear ruleevery real numberusually a bounded interval
lower end typicallynonezero, where the situation starts
upper end typicallynonewhere the output becomes impossible
can be discretenoyes, when only whole inputs make sense

The first row is the whole difference. §1.2's rules find where the algebra breaks, and for a linear rule they find nothing at all — every limit here comes from the story.

56. Building a linear model, in order

Pattern

Six steps, and the last two are the ones a formula alone will not remind you of.

  1. Read the question first, and identify the quantity being asked for. That is usually the output.
  2. Name the input and the output explicitly, with units, and say what input zero means.
  3. Find the rate, taking its sign from the verb in the sentence rather than from the number.
  4. Find the initial value, either given directly or computed from a data point with point-slope form.
  5. State the domain the situation allows, checking both ends and whether only whole numbers make sense.
  6. Interpret the slope and intercept in the situation's words, and say whether any prediction asked for is an interpolation or an extrapolation.

Steps 5 and 6 are where the marks are in a modelling question, and they are the two steps with no algebraic trigger to remind you they exist.

OpenStax Algebra and Trigonometry 2e, §4.2 Modeling with Linear Functions §4.2

57. Check yourself 1 of 3

Check

The verb carries the sign.

Check your understanding

A pool holds 3000 litres and loses 25 litres an hour to evaporation. Which model is right?

  • A. V(t) = 3000 - 25t (correct)
  • B. V(t) = 3000 + 25t
  • C. V(t) = 25 - 3000t
  • D. V(t) = 25t

Answer: A

Why: The starting value is 3000 litres and the rate is negative because the pool loses water. Checking after one hour gives 2975 litres, slightly less than the start, as it should be.

Why B tempts people
The sign is wrong: this model has the pool gaining water, so after a day it would hold more than it started with.
Why C tempts people
The two constants have been swapped, giving a pool that starts with 25 litres and loses 3000 an hour.
Why D tempts people
The initial value has been omitted entirely, so the model starts the pool empty.

58. Check yourself 2 of 3

Check

Ask the situation, not the formula.

Check your understanding

For the model V(t) = 3000 - 25t litres after t hours, what is the model's domain?

  • A. 0 to 120 hours (correct)
  • B. all real numbers
  • C. 0 to 3000 hours
  • D. 0 to 25 hours

Answer: A

Why: Time starts at zero, and the volume reaches zero when 25t equals 3000, which is at 120 hours. Beyond that the formula reports negative volumes, which describe nothing.

Why B tempts people
That is the formula's domain. The situation permits neither negative time nor negative volume.
Why C tempts people
This uses the initial volume as a time, confusing the two quantities.
Why D tempts people
This uses the rate as a time, again mixing up which constant is which.

59. Check yourself 3 of 3

Check

How far from the data?

Check your understanding

A model is built from data covering years 1 through 8. Using it to predict year 30 is called what?

  • A. Extrapolation, and it may be unreliable (correct)
  • B. Interpolation, and it is reliable
  • C. Model breakdown, which has already occurred
  • D. An arithmetic error

Answer: A

Why: Year 30 lies well outside the range the data covers, so the prediction rests on the assumption that the linear pattern continues rather than on evidence. The arithmetic is fine; the confidence is what is reduced.

Why B tempts people
Interpolation means predicting between data points, and 30 is far beyond the last one at 8.
Why C tempts people
Model breakdown is the point where predictions actually fail, which may or may not have happened by year 30; extrapolation names the risk rather than asserting the failure.
Why D tempts people
Nothing is wrong with the calculation. That is precisely what makes far extrapolation easy to trust by mistake.

60. Where this shows up outside the classroom

Real world

Almost every projection you see in the news is a linear model with its domain unstated.

Discussion prompt

A headline says a trend, continued, means a certain figure by 2050. What is the phrase 'continued' hiding, and what should you check?

Hint: How much data supports the claim, and how far beyond it does the projection reach?

Answer:

'Continued' is doing the work of the entire modelling assumption: it claims the rate of change stays constant for every year between now and 2050, which is exactly the linearity assumption.

What to check is the ratio of the extrapolation to the data. A projection reaching thirty years beyond five years of data is resting almost entirely on the assumption; one reaching two years beyond twenty is resting mostly on evidence.

The honest version of such a headline states the assumption and gives a range. This section's vocabulary is exactly what lets you say what is missing: it is an extrapolation, and the question is where model breakdown is likely to fall.

61. Commit before you check

Commit first

State your confidence along with your answer.

Predict first

A linear model of a cost has intercept 40 and slope 6. What does the 40 mean?

  • The cost when the input is zero, such as a fixed fee
  • The cost per unit
  • The number of units you can buy for free
  • The total cost

Correct: The cost when the input is zero, such as a fixed fee.

Why: The intercept is the output at input zero, which in a cost model is what is paid before any units are bought — a setup charge, joining fee or base rate. The per-unit cost is the slope, 6, and confusing the two produces a model that is wrong for every input except one.

62. Explain it to someone who missed the lesson

Explain it

The test of understanding is being able to say why, not just what.

Discussion prompt

Explain to a classmate why stating a model's domain is part of the answer rather than an extra, using an example where ignoring it gives nonsense.

Hint: What does the tank formula say at 100 minutes?

Answer:

Give the tank: 200 litres draining at 3 a minute. At 100 minutes the formula reports negative 100 litres, which is not a quantity of water. The formula has no way to know the tank stopped.

So the formula is a correct description on a limited stretch and a meaningless one outside it. Saying which stretch is the difference between a model and an equation, and nothing in the algebra prompts you to say it.

A good explanation stresses that §1.2's domain rules cannot help here: there is no denominator and no root, so the algebra reports no restriction at all. The limits come from the situation, and only someone who understands the situation can find them.

63. Exit ticket

Exit ticket

One honest answer, so the next lesson can start in the right place.

Predict first

Which idea from this lesson would you most want to see again?

  • Choosing which quantity is the input
  • Getting the sign of the rate from the words
  • Stating the domain the situation allows
  • Interpolation, extrapolation, and model breakdown

Correct: Any of these is a legitimate answer; the useful one is the honest one.

Why: There is no correct choice here. The third is the most commonly omitted step and the easiest marks in the section once the habit is built. The second causes wrong answers that look entirely plausible, which makes it worth a few minutes of deliberate practice.

64. Draw the map

Connect it up

One page, drawn from memory, is worth more than rereading the section.

Draw it

Take any situation with a starting amount and a steady rate — a tank, a savings account, a candle. Write its model, and beside it write four things: what the input is with its units, what the slope means in the situation's words, what the intercept means, and the domain with a reason for each endpoint. Then sketch the graph with the allowed stretch solid and the rest dashed.

If both of your endpoints have a reason stated in the situation's words rather than in algebra, you have the step that separates a model from a formula.

65. What you can do now

Recap

Five things, and two of them have no algebraic prompt to remind you.

if you remember one thingit should be this
about the variablesdefine them with units before writing any algebra
about the rate's signthe verb carries it, never the number
about the domainask the situation, not the formula
about predictionscorrect arithmetic and a trustworthy prediction are separate judgements

Section 2.4 handles the case this one assumed away: data that is nearly but not exactly linear, and how to fit a line to it and judge how well it fits.

OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions §2.3, pp. 233-246 — everything on these slides traces back here

Sources

  1. OpenStax, Precalculus, §2.3 Modeling with Linear Functions
  2. OpenStax Algebra and Trigonometry 2e, §4.2 Modeling with Linear Functions

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